FedEx vs UPS vs USPS: Who Really Loses the Most Packages?
Question: What do these quotes all have in common?
“I won’t ship with USPS. It’s affordable, but sometimes my packages just vanish into thin air.'"
“USPS is a non-starter. I've had more 'out for delivery' notifications without actual deliveries from USPS than any other carrier.'"
"Let’s stick with UPS. FedEx is OK until you need customer service. Then it's a maze of automated responses.'"
"'FedEx Ground? More like FedEx 'Guess when it'll arrive'.' We’re not using it."
“UPS is so frustrating to deal with and everyone knows it. If you miss that delivery window? Good luck rescheduling it on time.'"
“I don’t think I’ve ever received a UPS package without dents and bruises. Send it FedEx.”
Answer: They were all heard by Rush Order staff on the same day!
At Rush Order, we ship millions of packages per year across each of the three major US carriers, and we aggregate their on-time delivery performance on a regular basis.
With that data in hand, we’ll lead with the punch line: Is one carrier really better than the other?
Sure, sometimes, but the reality is much more nuanced and the decision about what carrier is best for your business is often simply a function of price and a few key features. Read on to delve into actual carrier performance and see if we can confirm or debunk your preconceived notion of which carrier is best.
Where to begin? Well, the holiday season is a critical time for businesses, consumers, and shipping carriers alike. As e-commerce brands make final preparations this year, the performance of major parcel carriers often comes under the spotlight. It’s also most interesting to compare FedEx vs UPS vs USPS when they are at their most stressed because of peak holiday season demand.
So, let’s dive into empirical data to understand the on-time performance (OTP) of FedEx, UPS, and USPS during last year’s holiday peak season and what it means for the upcoming 2023 peak season. For a moment, we’ll put aside (mis)perception and look at a balanced and data-driven perspective on carrier performance.
Key Findings from Rush Order’s 2022 peak season data: FedEx vs UPS vs USPS
In this post, we’ll compare the on time performance of all FedEx, UPS, and USPS in Q4 2022 versus Q4 2019. Why 2019 you say? Because 2019 was the last peak season before the pandemic started and it provides a clearer comparison. 2020 and 2021 were pretty rough years in terms of carrier performance during the pandemic and we don’t want to give them that much credit for their OTP improvements in 2022.
On-Time Performance (OTP) in Q4 2022 vs. Q4 2019:
FedEx: Rush Order’s data shows improvement from 94.8% on time in 2019 to 95.4% in 2022.
UPS: Remained consistent at almost exactly 97.6% in both 2019 and 2022.
USPS: Slightly decreased from 95.5% on time in 2019 to 94.6% in 2022.
These On-Time Performance (OTP) statistics for FedEx, UPS, and USPS are pretty remarkable. In an era marked by unprecedented challenges, from global supply chain disruptions to the lingering effects of a pandemic, maintaining and improving OTP is a testament to the resilience and adaptability of these three carriers.
When you think about it, a 95% or better on-time performance across millions of parcels spread over thousands of miles is pretty impressive. But, yes, this also means you have a 5% chance of being slightly, moderately, or severely upset with FedEx, UPS, and USPS performance on any given shipment. This is where subjective perception can overtake empirical broad-based evidence in shippers’ decision-making. And, a small part of this 5% is what leads to the quotes highlighted above.
A few common issues can impact OTP:
Operational Efficiency: The internal processes, technology, and workforce efficiency of the carrier.
External Factors: Weather conditions, road closures, natural disasters, or other unforeseen events.
Volume of Shipments: Peak seasons or high shipment volumes can strain the carrier's resources, potentially impacting OTP.
Geographical Challenges: The frequency at which deliveries need to occur to remote or hard-to-reach areas can pose challenges.
What Does This Data Mean for Holiday Peak Season 2023?
Given the consistent and commendable performance of all three major carriers, businesses and consumers can have confidence in their shipping choices for the upcoming holiday season. While unforeseen circumstances like extreme weather conditions can impact deliveries, the data suggests that carriers are well-equipped to handle the surge in volume and maintain high OTP rates.
Moreover, with the continuous advancements in technology, logistics, and infrastructure, it's anticipated that the 2023 holiday season will see even more streamlined operations and possibly higher OTP rates.
Again, going back to the original punchline above, your choice of which shipping carrier to use should probably come down to price. If you have a unique need that is well suited to a carrier’s unique offering like FedEx OneRate, there may be some value there. Or, another good example would be using USPS for shipments under one pound, which is indeed often ideal. But, all else being equal, these carriers are all quite good.
Be careful if you are evaluating regional carriers or USPS workshare partners. We do see some drastic variability in tracking accuracy and OTP with these carriers. But, again, the lower price of these services may be worth the trade-off if you’re not too concerned about the impact on customer experience and/or brand perception.
Parting Thoughts
The "USPS vs FedEx vs UPS" debate is one that businesses and consumers often engage in, especially during the holiday season. However, the data clearly indicates that all three carriers have showcased exemplary performance. As we gear up for the 2023 holiday season, we hope you’ll make data-driven decisions based on this evidence and set the right expectations for your customers and other stakeholders. Good luck and happy selling!
This post is part 6 of our ongoing series of parcel shipping guides for US-focused eCommerce and physical product brands. Our goal in this series is to help you become proficient in everything related to shipping via small parcel carriers like FedEx, UPS, and USPS in the United States.
Previous installments in this series include:
Part 2: A Detailed Overview of Service Levels with FedEx, UPS, and USPS
Part 4: Demystifying Surcharges and Fees from FedEx, UPS, and USPS
Part 5: Residential versus Commercial Deliveries: What You Need to Know
To learn more about your shipping options and best practices, we invite you to schedule a free no-obligation consultation with a Rush Order shipping expert.
