What Shipping Carrier is Best? A 2025 Holiday Showdown for DTC Brands
Introduction
Is UPS or FedEx better for your e-commerce shipping? What about FedEx versus USPS, or USPS versus UPS? Direct-to-consumer (DTC) ecommerce brands often ask these questions as the holiday selling season approaches. In this post, we’ll compare six major carriers, including UPS, FedEx, USPS, and regional players like OnTrac and GLS (plus a nod to DHL eCommerce).
We’ll highlight key data and what brands can expect heading into Holiday 2025. Recent industry stats and Rush Order’s own fulfillment data back up these findings.
Spoiler: on-time delivery rates in last year’s peak ranged from ~90% for USPS to ~96.5% for UPS[1][2], and our internal data shows OnTrac and GLS leading the pack at about 98–99% on-time!
UPS vs FedEx vs USPS: The Big Three Showdown
On-Time Performance: In the 2024 holiday peak, UPS led the big three with 96.5% on-time deliveries in December[1]. FedEx trailed at about 91.8% and USPS at 90.4% on-time[2] – a noticeable drop for FedEx and USPS compared to their ~98%+ performance the year prior. (UPS, in fact, has led on-time holiday performance for seven years running[3].) This data answers the “Is UPS or FedEx better?” question in terms of reliability: UPS has had the edge in recent years.
Speed vs. Cost: When comparing FedEx versus UPS, both offer fast ground and express services across the country, with similar transit times. FedEx is known for its broad portfolio of express options (same-day, overnight), while UPS is often praised for more consistent Ground delivery. In a UPS versus USPS matchup, USPS tends to be slower for long distances but shines on cost for lightweight packages. USPS also delivers to every address and doesn’t add residential or Saturday surcharges[4], making it a budget-friendly choice for DTC brands shipping small items. UPS and FedEx, by contrast, do add various surcharges during peak season (from fuel to residential fees), and both announced similar general rate increases (~5.9% for 2024)[5][6].
Holiday 2025 Expectations: UPS and FedEx have both invested in their networks (FedEx is integrating Ground and Express operations to improve efficiency, and UPS has expanded automation for reliability). FedEx versus USPS will likely remain a trade-off of speed vs. price: FedEx’s network offers faster guaranteed deliveries, whereas USPS offers cheap ground shipping and even Sunday delivery for no extra fee. If 2024’s peak taught us anything, it’s to plan for potential delays – FedEx and USPS struggled to meet 2023’s high on-time benchmarks[7], so in 2025, shippers should watch carrier performance closely. Using a mix of carriers can be wise: for example, UPS for critical shipments and USPS for economy shipments to balance cost and reliability.
| Carrier | On-Time % (Dec 2024) | Notes for 2025 Holiday Season |
|---|---|---|
| UPS | 96.5% | Highest reliability of the big three (down slightly from 98.7% in 2023). Expect consistent performance; has announced peak surcharges but also expanded capacity. |
| FedEx | 91.8% | Notable dip from ~98% in 2023, showing challenges last peak. Aims to rebound with network improvements; still offers fastest express options if needed. |
| USPS | 90.4% | Lower on-time rate (was 96.5% in 2023). Cost-effective for lightweight parcels and ubiquitous coverage. No extra residential fees |
| OnTrac | ~97% + | Regional carrier (covers ~36 states) with industry-leading on-time performance. Offers next-day regional delivery at ground rates, ~10–35% cheaper than national carriers. Peak surcharge modest and no weekend fees. |
| GLS | ~97% + | Regional carrier (strong West Coast presence) with ~99% on-time performance in Western states. Excellent for West Coast DTC shipments (1-2 day delivery in-region). Competitive ground rates and starting to expand more strongly to the East Coast. |
| DHL eCommerce | See USPS | DHL eCommerce (DHLe) uses USPS for final mile delivery and is a strong budget option for small parcels. Transit can be similar to USPS Ground Advantage, but DHLe's "Expedited Max" service level is a bit closer to Priority Mail performance. Good for cost-savings on non-urgent shipments; on-time rate roughly mirrors USPS performance. |
OnTrac & GLS: Regional Carriers Keeping Pace
Why Regionals Matter: Don’t overlook the regional carriers! OnTrac and GLS might not have the brand recognition of UPS/FedEx, but they often match or beat the nationals on performance in their service areas. In fact, Rush Order’s own fulfillment data shows OnTrac and GLS achieving about 97% on-time delivery in recent periods… stellar reliability that gives even UPS a run for its money. This aligns with OnTrac’s public claims of 98%+ on-time performance[8]. For DTC brands with a lot of customers on the West Coast or in the regions these carriers cover, integrating a regional carrier can be a game changer.
Advantages of OnTrac & GLS: Speed and cost are the big ones. OnTrac’s network now reaches 70% of the U.S. (36 states, after merging with LaserShip) and often provides 1-2 day delivery within region at ground shipping prices. Many brands report saving 10–35% on shipping costs with regionals[9] while still delighting customers with quick delivery. GLS is focused on the West (e.g. California and neighboring states) and similarly offers fast ground shipping – it was essentially born from a need for overnight ground service on the West Coast. Both carriers also include weekend deliveries (Saturdays and Sundays) as standard, with no extra fees, which can extend your order cutoff times during the holidays.
Things to Consider: Of course, regional carriers have limited geographic coverage. You can’t ship everywhere with OnTrac or GLS (OnTrac has expanded eastward significantly, while GLS is mostly in Western states, but quickly expanding East as well). This means using them in combination with the national carriers. For example, a strong strategy for a DTC seller could be to route West Coast orders via OnTrac / GLS (for speed and savings) and use UPS / FedEx / USPS for the rest of the country. Operationally, this is easier if you partner with a 3PL or have a multi-carrier shipping software to automatically split orders by region. When done right, the result is higher on-time delivery rates and lower costs, a win-win for the busy holiday season.
Bonus: Read our recent GLS Performance Case Study
Other Carrier Options (DHL eCommerce & More)
DHL eCommerce: Beyond the big three and the well-known regionals, DTC brands can also consider DHL eCommerce for certain shipments. DHL eCommerce is essentially a hybrid service – DHL handles the long-distance transport, then typically hands off to USPS for the final delivery. The benefit is often lower rates for lightweight packages (think accessories, cosmetics, small items) especially for long zones, and it can also simplify international shipping logistics. The trade-off is speed: delivery times will be similar to or a bit slower than USPS ground, since handoff adds a day or so. On-time performance for DHL eCommerce is roughly in line with USPS because USPS is doing the final leg; in peak season, expect it to be solid but plan a cushion for deliveries. It’s a great option for cost-conscious shipping when a 1-2 day extra transit time is acceptable.
Amazon Logistics & Others: No discussion of holiday shipping is complete without mentioning Amazon’s influence. Amazon’s own delivery network now ships huge volumes (over 25 million parcels per day during peak)[10], raising customer expectations for fast, free delivery. While Amazon Logistics isn’t an open carrier you can directly hire (unless you participate in programs like Buy with Prime or FBA multi-channel fulfillment), its presence pushes all carriers to up their game. Additionally, some newer regional and last-mile carriers (e.g. LaserShip – now part of OnTrac, LSO in Texas, GoBolt, etc.) are expanding or advertising no peak surcharges[11] to attract shippers frustrated with UPS/FedEx fees. As a DTC brand, it’s wise to keep an eye on these alternatives – if you have dense customer clusters in an area served by a smaller regional carrier that performs well (and perhaps doesn’t levy holiday fees), it could be worth a trial. The key is ensuring any carrier you use can hit the service level your customers expect for the holidays.
Conclusion: Crafting Your Holiday Carrier Strategy with a 3PL
Choosing a “winner” in the UPS versus FedEx or USPS versus everyone debate really comes down to your brand’s unique needs. As we’ve seen, each carrier brings something to the table: UPS offers top-tier reliability, FedEx provides speed and global reach, USPS gives cost-effective access to every doorstep, and regionals like OnTrac/GLS deliver exceptional service in their zones. The smartest approach for Holiday 2025 is not one-size-fits-all. DTC ecommerce brands can optimize by mixing carriers – for instance, using UPS for guaranteed time-sensitive shipments, USPS or DHL eCommerce for economical shipping on small orders, and OnTrac/GLS where they outperform. Managing this mix can be complex, which is where partnering with a 3PL fulfillment provider can make all the difference.
As a leading 3PL, Rush Order helps brands navigate these carrier options seamlessly. We leverage our data (like the on-time stats we shared) to guide carrier selection, and our high shipping volumes to secure favorable rates. The goal isn’t to favor one carrier over another, but to use the best tool for each job – and to pivot quickly if a carrier experiences delays or capacity issues. With the right 3PL support, you gain the flexibility to ride out carrier surcharges, capacity crunches, and weather delays, all while keeping your customers happy with on-time deliveries (at a reasonable cost). In short, an experienced 3PL fulfillment partner can turn holiday shipping from a headache into a competitive advantage for your brand. Here’s to a successful and smoothly-delivered 2025 holiday season! [1][8]
[1] [2] [7] [10] Carriers struggle with on-time performance in 2024 peak season
[3] UPS leads carriers in Q4 on-time deliveries while growing revenue
https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2025/01/30/ups-revenue-q4-2024-on-time-holiday-delivery/
[4] [5] [6] Navigating FedEx, UPS, OnTrac, and USPS Rate Increases
https://rushorder.com/blog/shipping-rate-alert-2024-price-increases
[8] OnTrac and ShipWise Announce Partnership - OnTrac
https://www.ontrac.com/ontrac-and-shipwise-announce-partnership/
[9] Best Last-Mile Delivery E-Commerce Parcel Carrier | OnTrac
https://www.ontrac.com/residential-e-commerce-delivery/
[11] 2025 peak season fees: How FedEx, UPS, Amazon and USPS compare | Supply Chain Dive
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/fedex-ups-usps-amazon-2025-peak-season/761429/
